TONY'S TALK - Harvest 2020 hopefully potatoes will save the day?

November 1, 2020 Robert Fernandes

“Arable farmers have suffered the worst harvest in 25 years!”. The extremes of climate that Europe and other areas of the world have experienced over the last twelve months has played havoc with agricultural production.

Due to reduced planting the UK Wheat harvest is down 38% from that of 2019 and there are wide variations in quality with poor yields per acre. Imported wheat, especially from Germany will be required to give us enough flour to see us through and to level up quality. Price increases are inevitable and will be seen first in bakeries.

The Pea crop has also proved difficult. The heavy rains experienced during February, March and into April delayed planting Although seed beds had an excellent start and the crop was looking really good, the extended hot weather of May and June rapidly dried up essential moisture and the fields became ‘patchy’. Farmers were hampered from the outset with essential seed treatment and other agri-chemicals being banned this year by the EU. This ban combined with the unusual weather pattern of 2020 has meant that Farmers have struggled for yields on all crops.

Yields of Wheat and Barley are more than 10% below the 5-year average; Oats 19%; Rapeseed 24% and Peas 15%. Although ‘new crop’ Marrowfats are slightly smaller in size than normal we will have enough to see us through with relative price stability. However, as peas are a difficult crop to cultivate higher priced contracts will be required to ensure Farmers grow them in 2021.

Oils and Fats are in great demand worldwide and prices have increased substantially. The Rapeseed crop has been particularly hard hit in the UK and Europe and is the lowest amount since 2006. Drought conditions over the Argentinean, Russian and Ukrainian major Sun Oil growing regions have reduced yield expectations and led to price increases. Palm Oil production in Malaysia has suffered from a lack of fertilisers and the absence of foreign plantation workers due to Covid restrictions. Stocks are unusually low for this time of year and exports are high. Chinese demand grows exponentially for soya, rape and palm oil and India is also a major importer. Soy Oil has been traded in record amounts and Brazil (the World’s largest producer) has none left to export. However current plantings have been severely delayed through extended drought and the anticipated record levels due for harvesting next Feb-April are in jeopardy. With no soya coming from Argentina due to an absence of Farmers’ selling, the USA is the main source of supply with heavy exports to China in particular.

Potatoes seem to be the only light on the horizon! Although planting was delayed and ‘new crop’ appeared later than usual the quality appears to be good with ample supplies at the moment. Benefiting from growing deeper in the soil than cereals and pulses what is not required is a repeat of the incessant rains experienced in October and November last year. Farmers could not get onto the fields to lift and hundreds of tonnes of ‘main crop’ potatoes. were lost. We can only hope that the Rain Gods are feeling benevolent!

We hope that you all manage to enjoy a Happy Christmas and a 2021 that will be better than 2020!